Friday, October 09, 2009

History will teach us nothing

The Florida State debacle taught me a valuable lesson: You can't make future predictions based on past performance.

I know that sounds counterintuitive, but we all know what happened on September 19. FSU barely squeaked by Jacksonville State and then walloped BYU 54-28, playing a near flawless game.

BYU's opponent tomorrow is UNLV.

Last week UNLV got their throats stomped by the Nevada Wolfpack, 63-28. UNLV gave up 770 offensive yards, 500+ of which was rushing. It was tied 28-28 mid-way through the third quarter when the Rebels simply gave up.

This was supposed to be a promising season for UNLV, but now the entire program is in shambles. Coach Mike Sanford's job is hanging by a thread.

It would seem, then, that BYU will be able to rip through Las Vegas like a drunken Southern Californian on a weekend bender.

Not so fast, my friends.

I think BYU will win, but I don't see this game being a walk in the park.

First, I see UNLV as having this game circled on their calendars. After last year's frustrating, last-second loss to BYU I have to believe the Rebels will have some extra motivation against BYU. Plus, UNLV has been playing well at home this year with wins over Hawaii and a squeaker loss to Oregon State.

And let's not forget about UNLV's dangerous offense. Omar Clayton is a good QB--he's mobile and he's surprisingly efficient. Also, Ryan Wolfe and Phil Walker are two great wide receivers. They torched the BYU defense last year, and they have to believe they can do it again.

Fortunately for BYU, UNLV's defense is a train wreck. They are dead last in the MWC in rush defense and overall defense. I think they're starting a contest winner at free safety.

I'd like BYU to have a gameplan similar to last week. Run the ball, stay on the field for a long time, and eat up the clock. There's no reason why we shouldn't win this game by double digits.

My prediction: BYU wins 35-20

Around the MWC

Wyoming 30, New Mexico 10
Utah 24, Colorado State 13
TCU 34, Air Force 19

**Bonus Pick**

Florida 27, LSU 20

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