Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Seeds of hope

One question I've been getting a lot lately: Where will BYU end up in the Big Dance? What seed will we be when we go to the NCAA Tournament?

My reply has been, is, and will be the same: Depends.

BYU is the kind of team that doesn't have a lot of wiggle room. Our basketball team is kind of like our football team in that regard: We can ride national hype, win games and climb high in the polls (like right now, for instance), but the minute we stumble we'll fall pretty far.

So right now we could reach a three seed, or even a two. But a loss or two on the way to Selection Sunday could mean up to a seven-spot drop.

So here are three possible seed-situations for BYU.

1. BYU wins out, gets a three (two?) seed. If we win the rest of our regular season games and then take the MWC Tournament, watch out. We'll have the best seed BYU has ever been given in the NCAA Tournament, setting up a possible Sweet 16 run.

2. BYU wins regular season, loses in the MWC Tournament. This is the most likely situation, I think, and I think it'll give BYU a 5 seed. We'll ride the good will of the regular season into a higher seed, and most likely a first-round win (that's all I want!)

3. BYU stumbles, doesn't loses a game in the regular season and loses in the MWC Tournament. This would put us in the dreaded 8, 9, 10 seed range. Or worse. If this happens we'll likely lose in the first round of the NCAA's again. Fortunately, I don't think this will happen.

Whatever the case, our post-season success is all about matchups, and I hope we can finally get a favorable one after years of tournament torture.

So in summary, I'll be hoping for situation No. 1, but I expect something like No. 2. We'll win out, and then probably lose in the Tournament Championship game. This will give us a higher seed, and it'll set us up nicely for our first NCAA Tournament win in over 15 years.

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